Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Data for Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Mortgage bonds are higher mid-morning Tuesday erasing the losses seen yesterday afternoon. Trade is thin this morning.

In news released this morning, the Case Shiller home price index fell 18.97%, near expectations. Also, consumer confidence stood at 25. Analysts expected confidence to stand at 28. With no more news set for release, traders will watch stocks to help gauge interest rate direction.

Today is the last day of the first quarter and many bond desks are more interested in closing their books than trading. This can crate a thin trading environment, which exaggerates volatility. Be careful.

Tomorrow brings the ADP payroll report. While the report is widely know for large misses, it will get traders talking about the jobs report on Friday. The employment report on Friday is the #1 data release each month and has the ability to cause big moves in the MBS market.

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Thank you for your remarks. I will review your submission and post it accordingly. Dave.